You Can’t Predict the Unpredictable
Fresh off the presses in talking nonsense to people (https://safetyrisk.net/safety-experts-in-speaking-nonsense-to-people/ ), Safety revels in contradiction and nonsense. For example, that structure creates culture (https://safetyrisk.net/structure-does-not-create-culture/).
It’s pretty simple in linguistics and grammar, if something is deemed unpredictable, then it cannot be predicted. If not, then language doesn’t make sense.
Yet, we see this all over safety, zero never means zero, different doesn’t mean different, care doesn’t mean care and culture doesn’t mean culture. When you spruik the safety code (https://safetyrisk.net/deciphering-safety-code/) you make language meaningless so that Safety can speak gobbledygook.
Of course, and when it dawns upon the undiscerning that fallibility is real, that uncertainty is real (https://safetyrisk.net/structure-does-not-create-culture/; https://safetyrisk.net/radical-uncertainty/ ), we don’t get zero, we get beyond zero, zero journey, zero vision, toward zero, zero plus 1, 1% safer and, all the nonsense linguistic gymnastics that only Safety so easily speaks. Yet, so many in the safety industry don’t believe it (https://safetyrisk.net/zero-survey-update/). Such is the safety psychosis with reality (https://safetyrisk.net/hoarding-as-a-psychosis-against-uncertainty/ ).
It’s such an easy task in an industry consumed by compliance and unskilled in critical thinking to speak utter gobbledygook to people. But hey, let’s not allow the sense of grammar and language get in the way of a safety myth (https://safetyrisk.net/category/safety-myths/ ).
Here are some examples on predicting the unpredictable:
· https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWVxrO2rXUY
· https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/predicting-the-unpredictable-9698
· https://riskbusiness.com/blog/predicting-the-unpredictable/
· https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00146/full
Of course, all of these people predicted the GFC, the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine? Of course not. Get out the Tarot cards, predict the lottery, read the horoscope, get out your predictive analytics and still you won’t ‘know’ what will happen this afternoon.
All of this flies in the face of the meaning of the word ‘accident’.
All of this flies in the face of the notion of ‘insurance’.
All of this flies in the face of the meaning of ‘risk’.
But No No No!!!, roll up, roll up, and learn the secrets of fallibility denial (https://www.humandymensions.com/product/fallibility-risk-living-uncertainty/ ). Get your copy of the iiRSM Focus magazine for November and become infallible, immortal and omniscient. Membership obviously requires immutability.
Yes, roll up, roll up, roll up, to hear how fallible people can make the unknown, known!!! Only perfect persons can attend the seminar, and bring your wallet.
Does anyone buy this nonsense? Because the world of daily life exists in denial of all it.
All of this nonsense denies the very meaning of the word ‘risk’. If you can predict an outcome, then there is no risk.
What is it about this industry that brags about being ‘professional’ that can’t cope with the reality of fallibility? The key to being professional is NOT speaking gobbledygook to people.
Get over it. No-one can predict the unpredictable, no one can know the unknown and no one can be certain about uncertainty.
It only takes a thimble full of intelligence to see the fraudulence of all of this. Have a look at this section of the iiRSM Focus Newsletter (Figure 1. Non-Professional Promotion)
Figure 1. Non-Professional Promotion
There it is, the admission on the left side of the promotion of crisis beside a promotion for predicting the unpredictable. Hmmm, and where does crisis come from???
It’s ludicrous, it’s a joke, its nonsense.
If you can predict the unpredictable then there will be no crisis.
One workshop cancels out the other, clearly a definition of ‘professional’.
Meanwhile, back in the real world of ethical, rational, moral and mature thinking (essential to professionalism, we know that all of this makes Safety a laughing stock.
The truth is, Risk Makes Sense . We can only Tackle Risk . Real Risk cannot be predicted and telling lies to people is unethical and unprofessional.
Prof. Robert Long
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I recently had a collision with a deer, doing considerable damage to my vehicle. Could I predict a deer might cross the road? Of course! Could I predict the exact date and time? Of course not! All accidents are preventable? No way in hell, but that position makes me a heretic in the world of Safety.
They tell us that good Leadership includes trust, humility and vulnerability but Safety would never admit it has no idea or no control
I didn’t predict you would write that.
I must be an idiot then
No it must be me. If you can’t see into the future how on earth can I be a safety clairvoyant?
It’s all in the numbers
Brent, of course heretic is a religious word and safety is a religion, zero is god. So, if you are declared a heretic, you’re doing something right. Perhaps you’re asking critical questions, perhaps you’re doubting divine declarations, perhaps your actually thinking critically or maybe listening to the silences. Whatever, the industry has a mental illness with reality and denying fallibility is the evidence.