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You are here: Home / Risk Management / You Can’t Predict the Unpredictable

You Can’t Predict the Unpredictable

November 19, 2022 by Dr Rob Long 7 Comments

Fresh off the presses in talking nonsense to people (https://safetyrisk.net/safety-experts-in-speaking-nonsense-to-people/ ), Safety revels in contradiction and nonsense. For example, that structure creates culture (https://safetyrisk.net/structure-does-not-create-culture/).

It’s pretty simple in linguistics and grammar, if something is deemed unpredictable, then it cannot be predicted. If not, then language doesn’t make sense.

Yet, we see this all over safety, zero never means zero, different doesn’t mean different, care doesn’t mean care and culture doesn’t mean culture. When you spruik the safety code (https://safetyrisk.net/deciphering-safety-code/) you make language meaningless so that Safety can speak gobbledygook.

Of course, and when it dawns upon the undiscerning that fallibility is real, that uncertainty is real (https://safetyrisk.net/structure-does-not-create-culture/; https://safetyrisk.net/radical-uncertainty/ ), we don’t get zero, we get beyond zero, zero journey, zero vision, toward zero, zero plus 1, 1% safer and, all the nonsense linguistic gymnastics that only Safety so easily speaks. Yet, so many in the safety industry don’t believe it (https://safetyrisk.net/zero-survey-update/). Such is the safety psychosis with reality (https://safetyrisk.net/hoarding-as-a-psychosis-against-uncertainty/ ).

It’s such an easy task in an industry consumed by compliance and unskilled in critical thinking to speak utter gobbledygook to people. But hey, let’s not allow the sense of grammar and language get in the way of a safety myth (https://safetyrisk.net/category/safety-myths/ ).

Here are some examples on predicting the unpredictable:

· https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWVxrO2rXUY

· https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/predicting-the-unpredictable-9698

· https://riskbusiness.com/blog/predicting-the-unpredictable/

· https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fnhum.2014.00146/full

Of course, all of these people predicted the GFC, the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine? Of course not. Get out the Tarot cards, predict the lottery, read the horoscope, get out your predictive analytics and still you won’t ‘know’ what will happen this afternoon.

All of this flies in the face of the meaning of the word ‘accident’.

All of this flies in the face of the notion of ‘insurance’.

All of this flies in the face of the meaning of ‘risk’.

But No No No!!!, roll up, roll up, and learn the secrets of fallibility denial (https://www.humandymensions.com/product/fallibility-risk-living-uncertainty/ ). Get your copy of the iiRSM Focus magazine for November and become infallible, immortal and omniscient. Membership obviously requires immutability.

Yes, roll up, roll up, roll up, to hear how fallible people can make the unknown, known!!! Only perfect persons can attend the seminar, and bring your wallet.

Does anyone buy this nonsense? Because the world of daily life exists in denial of all it.

All of this nonsense denies the very meaning of the word ‘risk’. If you can predict an outcome, then there is no risk.

What is it about this industry that brags about being ‘professional’ that can’t cope with the reality of fallibility? The key to being professional is NOT speaking gobbledygook to people.

Get over it. No-one can predict the unpredictable, no one can know the unknown and no one can be certain about uncertainty.

It only takes a thimble full of intelligence to see the fraudulence of all of this. Have a look at this section of the iiRSM Focus Newsletter (Figure 1. Non-Professional Promotion)

Figure 1. Non-Professional Promotion

clip_image002

There it is, the admission on the left side of the promotion of crisis beside a promotion for predicting the unpredictable. Hmmm, and where does crisis come from???

It’s ludicrous, it’s a joke, its nonsense.

If you can predict the unpredictable then there will be no crisis.

One workshop cancels out the other, clearly a definition of ‘professional’.

Meanwhile, back in the real world of ethical, rational, moral and mature thinking (essential to professionalism, we know that all of this makes Safety a laughing stock.

The truth is, Risk Makes Sense . We can only Tackle Risk . Real Risk cannot be predicted and telling lies to people is unethical and unprofessional.

  • Bio
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Dr Rob Long

Dr Rob Long

Expert in Social Psychology, Principal & Trainer at Human Dymensions
Dr Rob Long

Latest posts by Dr Rob Long (see all)

  • Culture and Risk Workshop – Feedback - March 24, 2023
  • The Myth of Certainty and Prediction in Risk - March 21, 2023
  • Practical Case Studies in SPoR Presented at Vienna Workshops - March 21, 2023
  • Risk iCue Video - March 20, 2023
  • Rethinking Leadership in Risk - March 20, 2023
Dr Rob Long
PhD., MEd., MOH., BEd., BTh., Dip T., Dip Min., Cert IV TAA, MRMIA Rob is the founder of Human Dymensions and has extensive experience, qualifications and expertise across a range of sectors including government, education, corporate, industry and community sectors over 30 years. Rob has worked at all levels of the education and training sector including serving on various post graduate executive, post graduate supervision, post graduate course design and implementation programs.

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Filed Under: Risk Management, Robert Long Tagged With: fallibility, unpredictability

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. BRENT CHARLTON says

    November 30, 2022 at 11:32 AM

    I recently had a collision with a deer, doing considerable damage to my vehicle. Could I predict a deer might cross the road? Of course! Could I predict the exact date and time? Of course not! All accidents are preventable? No way in hell, but that position makes me a heretic in the world of Safety.

    Reply
    • Admin says

      November 30, 2022 at 6:58 PM

      They tell us that good Leadership includes trust, humility and vulnerability but Safety would never admit it has no idea or no control

      Reply
      • Rob Long says

        December 1, 2022 at 5:48 AM

        I didn’t predict you would write that.

        Reply
        • Admin says

          December 1, 2022 at 8:11 AM

          I must be an idiot then

          Reply
          • Rob long says

            December 1, 2022 at 9:51 AM

            No it must be me. If you can’t see into the future how on earth can I be a safety clairvoyant?

          • Admin says

            December 1, 2022 at 12:26 PM

            It’s all in the numbers

    • Rob Long says

      December 1, 2022 at 5:52 AM

      Brent, of course heretic is a religious word and safety is a religion, zero is god. So, if you are declared a heretic, you’re doing something right. Perhaps you’re asking critical questions, perhaps you’re doubting divine declarations, perhaps your actually thinking critically or maybe listening to the silences. Whatever, the industry has a mental illness with reality and denying fallibility is the evidence.

      Reply

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