• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Safety Risk .net

Humanising Safety and Embracing Real Risk

  • Home
    • About
      • Privacy Policy
      • Contact
  • FREE RESOURCES
    • FREE SAFETY eBOOKS
    • FREE DOWNLOADS
    • TOP 50
    • FREE RISK ASSESSMENT FORMS
    • Find a Safety Consultant
    • Free Safety Program Documents
    • Psychology Of Safety
    • Safety Ideas That Work
    • HEALTH and SAFETY MANUALS
    • FREE SAFE WORK METHOD STATEMENT RESOURCES
    • Whats New In Safety
    • FUN SAFETY STUFF
    • Health and Safety Training
    • SAFETY COURSES
    • Safety Training Needs Analysis and Matrix
    • Top 20 Safety Books
    • This Toaster Is Hot
    • Free Covid-19 Toolbox Talks
    • Download Page – Please Be Patient With Larger Files…….
    • SAFETY IMAGES, Photos, Unsafe Pictures and Funny Fails
    • How to Calculate TRIFR, LTIFR and Other Health and Safety Indicators
    • Download Safety Moments from Human Resources Secretariat
  • PSYCHOLOGY OF SAFETY & RISK
    • Safety Psychology Terminology
    • Some Basics on Social Psychology & Risk
    • Understanding The Social Psychology of Risk – Prof Karl E. Weick
    • The Psychology of Leadership in Risk
    • Conducting a Psychology and Culture Safety Walk
    • The Psychology of Conversion – 20 Tips to get Started
    • Understanding The Social Psychology of Risk And Safety
    • Psychology and safety
    • The Psychology of Safety
    • Hot Toaster
    • TALKING RISK VIDEOS
    • WHAT IS SAFETY
    • THE HOT TOASTER
    • THE ZERO HARM DEBATE
    • SEMIOTICS
    • LEADERSHIP
  • Covid-19
    • COVID-19 (Coronavirus, Omicron) Health and Safety Slogans and Quotes for the Workplace
    • Covid-19 Returning to Work Inductions, Transitioning, Safety Start Up and Re Entry Plans
    • Covid-19 Work from Home Safety Checklists and Risk Assessments
    • The Hierarchy of Control and Covid-19
    • Why Safety Loves Covid-19
    • Covid-19, Cricket and Lessons in Safety
    • The Covid-19 Lesson
    • Safety has this Covid-19 thing sorted
    • The Heart of Wisdom at Covid Time
    • How’s the Hot Desking Going Covid?
    • The Semiotics of COVID-19 and the Social Amplification of Risk
    • Working From Home Health and Safety Tips – Covid-19
    • Covid-19 and the Hierarchy of Control
  • Dr Rob Long Posts
    • Learning Styles Matter
    • There is no HIERARCHY of Controls
    • Scaffolding, Readiness and ZPD in Learning
    • What Can Safety Learn From Playschool?
    • Presentation Tips for Safety People
    • Dialogue Do’s and Don’ts
    • It’s Only a Symbol
    • Ten Cautions About Safety Checklists
    • Zero is Unethical
    • First Report on Zero Survey
    • There is No Objectivity, Deal With it!
  • Quotes & Slogans
    • Researchers Reveal the Top 10 Most Effective Safety Slogans Of All Time
    • When Slogans Don’t Work
    • 77 OF THE MOST CLASSIC, FAMOUS and INFAMOUS SAFETY QUOTES
    • 500 BEST and WORST WORKPLACE HEALTH and SAFETY SLOGANS 2021
    • 167 CATCHY and FUNNY SAFETY SLOGANS FOR THE WORKPLACE
    • COVID-19 (Coronavirus, Omicron) Health and Safety Slogans and Quotes for the Workplace
    • Safety Acronyms
    • You know Where You Can Stick Your Safety Slogans
    • Sayings, Slogans, Aphorisms and the Discourse of Simple
    • Spanish Safety Slogans – Consignas de seguridad
    • Safety Slogans List
    • Road Safety Slogans
    • How to write your own safety slogans
    • Why Are Safety Slogans Important
    • Safety Slogans Don’t Save Lives
    • 40 Free Safety Slogans For the Workplace
    • Safety Slogans for Work
You are here: Home / Robert Long / Abduction in Risk and Safety

Abduction in Risk and Safety

March 10, 2017 by Dr Rob Long 15 Comments

Abduction in Risk and Safety

imageWe all should know about induction and deduction but what do we know about abduction? Safety has a long tradition of deduction (not always that good), some reasonable history in induction (albeit, the wrong rite of passage to the wrong mentalitie) and virtually no one in safety speaks of abduction (the expectation and logic of expecting a surprise). When one is preoccupied with a discourse of controls, certainty, technology and objects, why would one accept the certainty of surprise? Why would one expect something alien to emerge from a system that has been created to manage risk?

Abductive reasoning (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abductive_reasoning) acknowledges the finitude of systems, controls and human perceptions. Abductive reasoning acknowledges mystery in the machine. It is why organisations, to use Dekker’s phase appear to ‘drift into failure’. In reality no organization drifts into failure, they never had ‘arrived’. The concept of completeness, perfection and infallibility is a concoction of the safety mindset, fixed on absolutes such as zero. This is why Weick’s work is so important, expecting the unexpected is an indicator of risk intelligence (Evans).

One of the worst mindsets that can get hold of the safety person is that everything is under control, everything is comfortable. This is the recipe for hubris, one of the greatest risks to safety. The moment all is comfortable, the moment we thing we have got that matrix colour down from red to green, we can stop thinking, stop interrogating the situation, all will go well. We need a dose of abductive reasoning. So, one makes a hypothesis but doesn’t ‘deduce’ or ‘infer’ that the outcome is predictable, one needs to explain why it is unpredictable.

The idea of abduction comes from Charles Pierce, one of the founders of semiotics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Sanders_Peirce ).

Recently I have learned that people are being seduced by a nonsense called ‘predictive analytics’. The idea is that one can predict what a human will do if one can collect enough data on the human, including video data (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_analytics ). This has led to building sites overseas with hundred of cameras (big brother) on site collecting data in the naïve idea that behaviours are predictive and provide insight into what will happen next. Trouble is, humans are not machines and behaviourism is a nonsense. Humans are not the sum of inputs and outputs. Still people buy this crap amid promises to reduce injuries down to zero. Ah, the seduction of the absolute, lets buy it. As long as the discourse is safety we can rob any human of what we want.

Predictive analytics is from the same faith as ‘big data’ and ‘machine learning’ (sic, no machine can ‘learn’). This faith-belief in big data is behind the pain and suffering of thousands of Australians disturbed by the robo-debt debacle by Centrelink. How fantastic to attack the weak and vulnerable with fear, distress and cruelty in the name of ‘big-data ideology’ (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/centrelinks-robodebt-creating-a-climate-of-fear-20170307-gut1z7.html ). We see in this debacle the ideology of predictive analytics. When will people begin to understand how humans make judgments and decisions? When will people begin to understand the social psychology of decision making? Instead, lets make some dollars out of promises in predictability and cover up the mess when we psychology injure tens of thousands of vulnerable Australians. Cool.

There is one thing for sure, humans cannot be predicted. Any ‘clap trap’ about ‘prediction’ is a religious belief in denial of fallibility, randomness and the reality of the world. You can read more about the religion here:

http://ehstoday.com/safety/advanced-and-predictive-analytics-safety-are-they-worth-investment

https://ohsonline.com/~/media/F706D1194701451FADFD66D80C1E06B4.pdf

 

For a moment, let’s apply some critical thinking, just interrogate the language and the power behind the language. The guarantee is to ‘predict’ behaviours (and hence the unconscious and thinking) and then only the claim to ‘reduce’ injuries. Huh? If you can predict what humans will do, then go for zero!!! Ah, the promise of god, is alive and well in the safety religion.

  • Bio
  • Latest Posts
  • More about Rob
Dr Rob Long

Dr Rob Long

Expert in Social Psychology, Principal & Trainer at Human Dymensions
Dr Rob Long

Latest posts by Dr Rob Long (see all)

  • Culture Silences in Safety Symbolism - May 19, 2022
  • Culture Silences in Safety Mythology - May 16, 2022
  • The Safety Trifecta and Nothing Changes - May 14, 2022
  • Sleep Dysfunction, Dreaming and Safety - May 12, 2022
  • Working Out What Makes Sense in Safety - May 9, 2022
Dr Rob Long
PhD., MEd., MOH., BEd., BTh., Dip T., Dip Min., Cert IV TAA, MRMIA Rob is the founder of Human Dymensions and has extensive experience, qualifications and expertise across a range of sectors including government, education, corporate, industry and community sectors over 30 years. Rob has worked at all levels of the education and training sector including serving on various post graduate executive, post graduate supervision, post graduate course design and implementation programs.

Please share our posts

  • Click to print (Opens in new window)
  • Click to email this to a friend (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Robert Long, Social Psychology of Risk Tagged With: abductive reasoning

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Search and Discover More on this Site

Visit Count – Started Jan 2015

  • 24,007,231 Visitors

Never miss a post - Subscribe via Email

Enter your email address and join other discerning risk and safety people who receive notifications of new posts by email

Join 7,420 other subscribers

NEW! Free Download

How we pay for the high cost of running of this site – try it for free on your site

Please take our 2 minute zero survey

Recent Comments

  • Roel on Free Workplace Health and Safety Downloads
  • Rob Long on Safety Silences – Video Series
  • BRENT R CHARLTON on Safety Silences – Video Series
  • Rob Long on Sleep Dysfunction, Dreaming and Safety
  • Rob Long on Working Out What Makes Sense in Safety
  • simon cassin on Working Out What Makes Sense in Safety
  • Rob Long on The Safety Trifecta and Nothing Changes
  • Aneta Parker on The Safety Trifecta and Nothing Changes
  • Rob Long on How to Tackle Risk You Can’t See
  • Andrew Thornhill on How to Tackle Risk You Can’t See

FREE eBOOK DOWNLOADS

Featured Downloads

  • violence_checklist.pdf (2126 downloads)
  • Safety-Backronym-Poster.pdf (1381 downloads)
  • How-can-the-ideology-of-zero-be-ethical_.pdf (682 downloads)
  • Risk Assessment Template (1987 downloads)
  • Public-Event-Risk-Management-Checklist-HD.doc (1914 downloads)
  • My_Defining Moments in Safety .pdf (3308 downloads)
  • OHSW-Plant-Specific-Hazard-Identification.doc (4013 downloads)
  • SAFETY-SLOGANS-LIST.doc (8529 downloads)
  • Vehicle Visual Inspection (9190 downloads)
  • Presentation-Skills-Toolbox.pdf (1123 downloads)
  • CLLR-SPoR-Unit1.pdf (1474 downloads)
  • Electrical Equipment Risk Assessment (2034 downloads)
  • Coronavirus - Covid 19 Toolbox Talk (6996 downloads)
  • Safety Moments - General Collection (8286 downloads)
  • Tunneling Risk Assessment (1458 downloads)

Recent Posts

  • Culture Silences in Safety Symbolism
  • Culture Silences in Safety Mythology
  • The Safety Trifecta and Nothing Changes
  • Sleep Dysfunction, Dreaming and Safety
  • Working Out What Makes Sense in Safety
  • How to Tackle Risk You Can’t See
  • Study Reveals an Unexpected Side Effect of Traffic Safety Messages
  • Human Factors is Never About Humans
  • Where to Start in Humanising Leadership in Risk
  • Humanising Leadership in Risk, Shifting the Focus from Objects to Persons

What is Psychological Safety at Work?

Footer

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address and join other discerning risk and safety people who receive notifications of new posts by email

Join 7,420 other subscribers

AUTHORS

  • Alan Quilley
    • Heinrich–Industrial Accident Prevention
    • The Problem With ZERO Goals and Results
  • Bernard Corden
    • After the goldrush
    • The Internationale
  • Bill Sims
    • Employee Engagement: Chocolate, Vanilla, or Strawberry?
    • Injury Hiding-How do you stop it?
  • Craig Clancy
    • Task Based vs Activity Based Safe Work Method Statements
    • Safety And Tender Submissions
  • Daniel Kirk
    • It’s easy being wise after the event.
    • A Positive Safety Story
  • Dave Whitefield
    • Safety is about…
    • Safety and Compliance
  • Dennis Millard
    • Are You Risk Intelligent?
    • Honey they get me! They get me at work!
  • Drewie
    • Downturn Doin’ Your Head In? Let’s Chat….
    • How was your break?
  • Gabrielle Carlton
    • All Care and No Care!
    • You Are Not Alone!
  • George Robotham
    • How to Give an Unforgettable Safety Presentation
    • How To Write a Safety Report
  • Goran Prvulovic
    • Safety Manager – an Ultimate Scapegoat
    • HSE Performance – Back to Basics
  • James Ellis
    • Psychological Core Stability for Wellbeing in Workers Comp
    • In search of plan B in workers’ recovery
  • James Parkinson
    • To laugh or not to laugh
    • People and Safety
  • John Toomey
    • In it for The Long Haul – Making the most of the FIFO Lifestyle
    • Who is Responsible for This?
  • Karl Cameron
    • Abby Normal Safety
    • The Right Thing
  • Ken Roberts
    • Safety Legislation Is Our Biggest Accident?
    • HSE Trip Down Memory Lane
  • Mark Perrett
    • Psychology of Persuasion: Top 5 influencing skills for getting what you want
  • Mark Taylor
    • Build a Psychologically Safe Workplace by Taking Risks and Analysing Failures
    • Enculturing Safety
  • Max Geyer
    • WHS Legislation is NOT about Safety it’s about Culture
    • Due Diligence Is Not Just Ticking Boxes!
  • Matt Thorne
    • Safety Culture–Hudson’s Model
    • Culture – Edgar Schein
  • Peter Ribbe
    • Is there “Common Sense” in safety?
    • Who wants to be a safety professional?
  • Phil LaDuke
    • Professional Conferences Are A Sleazy Con
    • Hey Idiots, You’re Worried About the Wrong Things
  • Admin
    • Study Reveals an Unexpected Side Effect of Traffic Safety Messages
    • Humanising Leadership in Risk, Shifting the Focus from Objects to Persons
  • Dr Rob Long
    • Culture Silences in Safety Symbolism
    • Culture Silences in Safety Mythology
  • Rob Sams
    • The Learning (and unlearning) that Revealed my Vocation
    • I’m just not that into safety anymore
  • Barry Spud
    • Things To Consider When Developing And Designing Your Company SWMS
    • Bad Safety Photos
  • Sheri Suckling
    • How Can I Get the Boss to Listen?
  • Simon Cassin
    • Safety values, ideas, behaviours and clothes
  • Safety Nerd
    • The Block isn’t portraying safety as it should be
    • Toolbox Talk Show–PPE
  • Wynand Serfontein
    • Why The Problem With Learning Is Unlearning
    • I DON’T KNOW
  • Zoe Koskinas
    • Why is fallibility so challenging in the workplace?

Most commented on

Forecasting Safety

The Banned Objects Index – A New Development in Safety Culture

The Unconscious and the Soap Dispenser

Dumbs for Safety

The Real Barriers to Safety

Safety as Faith Healing

Who Said We Don’t Need Systems?

Why Safety Controls Don’t Always Work

How to use signs, symbols and text effectively in communicating about risk

Safety Should NOT Be About Safety

FEATURED POSTS

Safety for Luddites

Safety Giveaways–Free Stuff!

The Art of the Open Question

Deconstruction and Reconstruction for Safety

When Slogans Don’t Work

Envisioning Risk in Canada

Seven Essential Safety Reminders

Is Safety the Empire of Non-Sense?

Take Safety Seriously

Suffering – Sometimes There Is No Reason

Measurement in Safety, You’ve Got it All Wrong

Free Poster–Risk

No Ethic of Hope in Zero

What Can Safety Learn from Barbie

The Lexicon of Safety Gibberish

Holistic Ergonomics

Social Psychology Of Risk Workshops

Independent Thinking in an Uncertain World, A Mind of One’s Own

A Letter To The Editor

Mapping Social Influence Strategies

More Posts from this Category

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Enter your email address and join other discerning risk and safety people who receive notifications of new posts by email

Join 7,420 other subscribers

How we pay for the high cost of running of this site – try it for free on your site

 

How To Make Your Own Hand Sanitizer

 

 

How to Make your own Covid-19 Face Mask

 

Covid-19 Returning To Work Safety, Transitioning, Start Up And Re Entry Plans

 

How’s the Hot Desking Going Covid?

imageOne of the benefits of the Covid-19 epidemic is a total rethink about how we live and work (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/coronavirus-could-reshape-how-australians-work-forever/12097124 ).

Expertise by Regurgitation and Re-Badging

One of the fascinating things about the Coronavirus pandemic is watching Safety morph into epidemiology expertise. I would like a dollar for every flyer, presentation, podcast, powerpoint, checklist template, toolbox talk and poster set that had jumped into my inbox… Read the rest

The Stress of Stasis

One of the challenging things about the Coronavirus crisis is stasis. For those without work and confined to home, for those in self-isolation, it’s like life is frozen in time. ‘Stay at home’ is the mantra. The trouble is, in… Read the rest

loading Cancel
Post was not sent - check your email addresses!
Email check failed, please try again
Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.